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![Too Many Words]()
22 Dec, 2014Too Many Words
Among monetary economists, there is a raging debate over the merits of the Fed's burgeoning balance sheet. Back in November 2010, an open letter to Fed chairman Ben Bernanke was published in the Wall ...
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![Energy Panic]()
16 Dec, 2014Energy Panic
Take a look at the price of a barrel of good ol West Texas Intermediate (see graph below). Two things jump out at me: big declines occur in recessions (which makes sense as demand falls), and theres a ...
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![Europe Sputters, US Cruises]()
15 Dec, 2014Europe Sputters, US Cruises
Europe's unemployment rate is 11.5%. Europe is currently growing at less than 1%. A rule of thumb is that it takes excess growth of 2-2.5% to drop the unemployment rate by 1%. I think you see the ...
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![Deflation? Not US]()
9 Dec, 2014Deflation? Not US
The dramatic (40%!) drop in oil prices has caused some hysteria in the media about the rising risks of deflation. After all, lower energy prices is deflationary. Well, that's not quite true.Inflation ...
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![Labor Market]()
5 Dec, 2014Labor Market
Oh, this was a strong report this morning, on every level:321,000 net new jobs in November.10 consecutive months of +200,000 payroll gains (228,000 on average over the past year).Labor force expanded ...
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![Petropolitics-II (Implications)]()
3 Dec, 2014Petropolitics-II (Implications)
Declining oil prices provide a net benefit to the global economy. A rule of thumb is every $10/barrel transfers around $330 billion, about 0.4% of world GDP, between oil producers to oil consumers. So ...
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![Petropolitics]()
2 Dec, 2014Petropolitics
For the past few years, oil has held steady at around $100/barrel, as supply and demand were largely held in check. Supply was disrupted in Libya and South Sudan, Venezuela saw production tumble due ...
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![EM Thoughts...Not There Yet]()
25 Nov, 2014EM Thoughts...Not There Yet
Successful investing is frequently about balancing valuation with growth prospects. We would all love to invest in cheap assets with strong prospective growth, but most of the time, we're forced to ...
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![Jobs]()
24 Nov, 2014Jobs
There's no doubt that the headline unemployment rate (5.8%) does not tell the full picture of the job market. Specifically, there have been three areas of concern not reflected in the (low-ish) ...
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![Pressure Building]()
20 Nov, 2014Pressure Building
ÂYes, we all know the European economy is not growing: stagnant, sclerotic, etc. But this fact is not a crisis. Its a concern, a problem, a challenge, but not a crisis.It is hard to get ...
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![Spreads]()
18 Nov, 2014Spreads
An interesting graphic from Ken Leech of Western Asset showing that spreads in Bondland this year are pretty much unchanged from the start of the year. This, despite the rally in US equities and solid ...
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![Money Matters]()
17 Nov, 2014Money Matters
When the Fed embarked on Quantitative Easing (QE), many prominent economists warned this would lead to hyperinflation (or, at least, an wanted surge in inflation). Didn't happen. With QE ended, many ...
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![Selected Fun Facts]()
14 Nov, 2014Selected Fun Facts
Some fun facts about this year (courtesy Michael Hartnett of Merrill Lynch):US equities (+14%) are ahead of European equities (-6%) by the widest margin since 1976.US large cap is beating US small cap ...
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13 Nov, 2014"Special"?
The following item caught my eye on Bloomberg:Los Angeles City Employees' Retirement System is scheduled to discuss a staff report requested at a prior meeting on the pension's specialized private ...
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![Logistics]()
11 Nov, 2014Logistics
Not enough attention is being paid to the work slowdown/stoppage going on at West Coast ports.The last time there was a disruption was in 2002, and it ended 10 days later only after a presidential ...
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![How The Mighty Fall]()
11 Nov, 2014How The Mighty Fall
Between March 2000 and October 2002, the NASDAQ Index fell 75%, from over 5,000 to under 1,300. Of course, valuations were beyond silly at the peak, and I confess, following the collapse, I thought my ...
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![Happy Singles Day!]()
11 Nov, 2014Happy Singles Day!
11 November is celebrated in the US as Veteran's Day and throughout Europe as Armistice Day, marking the armistice ending the First World War in 1918. Government agencies and banks are closed for the ...
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![US Manufacturing]()
4 Nov, 2014US Manufacturing
Wow. The good people at the Institute for Supply Management survey American manufacturers every month and ask, "how's business?" They then create a diffusion index based on those responses: a scale ...
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![PIMCO PAID BILLIONAIRE GROSS $290 MILLION BONUS IN 2013]()
4 Nov, 2014PIMCO PAID BILLIONAIRE GROSS $290 MILLION BONUS IN 2013
"In the mutual fund world it's no doubt on the very high side," said Michael Rosen, chief investment officer at Angeles Investment Advisors. "This is a company with $2 trillion - that's an awful lot of money & that's an awful lot of money in fees".
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![It's a Big World]()
3 Nov, 2014It's a Big World
With apologies to Walt Disney, the global economy is getting, well, more global, and, intuitively, companies' sensitivities to global macro factors increase in proportion to their global ...
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![QE Impact?]()
31 Oct, 2014QE Impact?
QE3 (the policy, not a new Cunard ship) was launched 2 years ago and ended this week. The expanded it balance sheet by $1.6 trillion, or 62%.Economists (and other, smarter people) will debate the ...
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![DOUBLE LEVERAGE?]()
29 Oct, 2014DOUBLE LEVERAGE?
Oil prices are down about $30 from their highs; great news for consumers and the big oil importers (China, Korea, India). Not so good news for the big producers (Saudi, Russia, Venezuela).Oil ...
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![BRASIL]()
28 Oct, 2014BRASIL
A hundred years ago, I studied international relations in school (the Sykes-Picot Treaty was a hotly-debated current topic among us). For the few of us focused on the Third World (now given the more ...
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![The Present is the Future (at least in bond land)]()
27 Oct, 2014The Present is the Future (at least in bond land)
In our long-term assumptions, we generally assume that the total return in fixed income is pretty close to its starting yield. Thats because a bonds total return is a function of two variables: yield ...
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